The New York Knicks this season were consistently inconsistent, one month they would look like one of the best teams in the NBA and a legit contender. Then they would have a month where they were above or below average, leaving you wondering if they could even make it out of the 1st round. This culminated in a season in which New York finished as the 3rd seed in the East with a 53-29 record, the 3rd-best offensive rating in the league, the 7th-best defensive rating, and the 5th-best net rating in the league.
When it comes to the Atlanta Hawks, it was a tale of two seasons. After an offseason well-received by the NBA world, they came into the season with a lot of hype.
But by the trade deadline, they were the 9th seed in the East with a 26-27 record and traded both Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis. It seemed Atlanta was destined to be a play-in exit or miss the playoffs and play-in entirely.
Yet, they did the complete opposite, as after February 6, they went on to have a 20-9 record. In addition, ranking top 9 in offensive, defensive, and net rating in this span. Atlanta finished the season as the 6th seed in the East with a 46-36 record, the 14th-best offensive rating in the league, the 9th-best defensive rating, and the 12th-best net rating in the NBA.
But how do these units match up?
Knicks Offense vs Hawks Defense
When it comes to bogging down the Knicks’ high-octane offense, it starts with finding a way to limit Jalen Brunson. Atlanta has the length on the perimeter to give themselves a chance of containing Brunson.
Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will take on the responsibility of causing some problems for the star guard on the ball. Per craftednba.com, Daniels stands at 6’6 with a 6’11 wingspan, and Nickeil stands at 6’4 with a 6’10 wingspan.
The sixth seeded Hawks also have lengthy forwards in Jalen Johnson and Jonathan Kuminga who will create issues at the point of attack in the moments when they switch onto Brunson.
Unfortunately, this opens up the can of worms, which is that Atlanta doesn’t have much of an answer for Karl-Anthony Towns. Their only big man that is considered trustworthy in a playoff rotation is Onyeka Okongwu.
The sixth-year center for Atlanta is a smaller-ish center relative to the typical frame for the position in the NBA. This size disadvantage will be apparent in this series as well, since Okongwu stands at 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan. While the Knicks centers in Towns and Mitchell Robinson clock in at 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan and 7’0 with a 7’4 wingspan.
Atlanta’s backup center, Jock Landale will be on the sidelines this series due to a sprained ankle. Atlanta is not only lacking size at the position, but is thin there as well.
Robinson and Towns will dominate on the offensive glass, creating a lot of second-chance opportunities. Both are capable of accomplishing this as they’re some of the NBA’s premier offensive rebounders.
Robinson averaged 4.2 offensive rebounds per game on the season, ranking second in the category. Towns averaged 3.1 offensive rebounds per game on the year, tied for seventh in the category.
Hawks Offense vs Knicks Defense
It’s no secret that Brunson and Towns are both bad defensively, their defensive shortcomings were highlighted to a large degree against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.
Yet unlike Indiana, the Hawks don’t have the overall ball-handling and offensive talent to overwhelm the Knicks defense because they’re covering for having to help Brunson and Towns.
Dyson Daniels is an elite perimeter defender, but his offense game fails in comparison. While the fourth-year guard is an efficient short midrange scorer, he’s not comfortable taking long midrange shots at all. He only attempted two long midrange shots in the regular season.
Outside of 0-10 feet from the basket, Daniels is a complete non-offensive threat. On the season, he shot just 18.8% from three on a measly volume of 1.5 attempts from behind the arc per game.
His offensive limitations will allow New York to keep Towns and Robinson near the rim, either daring him to shoot long twos or three pointers or forcing him to shoot floaters over Towns and Robinson. Which will be extremely difficult, especially over Robinson, who’s an elite rim protector.
OG Anunoby is not only one of the league’s premier and versatile defenders, but he also presents an almost perfect defensive matchup for Jalen Johnson. Anunoby can match Johnson in size, strength, and speed.
Meaning he’s capable of getting underneath Atlanta’s young star handle, which can get weaker and more loose under heavy amounts of ball pressure. Anunoby can limit Jalen’s ability to attack the rim and create open looks or advantages for his teammates to attack.
Mikal Bridges has the defensive skillset to force Nickeil Alexander-Walker into more pull-up jumpers, where he’s less effective compared to shooting and attacking off the catch. Per NBA.com, on catch-and-shoot threes this regular season, Nickeil shot 42.6% on 5.8 attempts per game. While on pull-up threes, the breakout guard shot 33.1% on 2.3 attempts per game.
CJ McCollum is a piece that’s concerning for New York. As mentioned earlier, Brunson is a negative defensively and will most likely be McCollum’s primary assignment.
McCollum has the offensive skill as a pull-up jump shooter and self-creator to take advantage of Brunson’s defensive shortcomings. He’s capable of winning Atlanta a game this series with an array of pull-up jumpers for 25 or more points.
An area where the Hawks can create problems is in transition. According to NBA.com, they finished the regular season ranked 4th in transition frequency at 21.6 and points per game in transition at 28.4.
New York, on the other hand, ranks 16th in transition frequency at 18.2% and 23rd in points per possession allowed in transition at 1.17. Making this a legitimate area the Hawks can exploit against the Knicks.
X-Factors
For the Knicks, their X-factor is Mitchell Robinson, if he can impose his will on Atlanta’s small frontcourt and dominate the offensive glass. Robinson can give New York more margin for error during the series with the wave of second-chance opportunities he will create.
For the Hawks, their X-factor is Mo Gueye. Atlanta would already be running a thin rotation this series, even if they were fully healthy. But with no Landale in the lineup, they now only have 6 players you trust to be a real part of a playoff rotation.
Even then, their sixth man in the rotation Kuminga, is a little shaky when it comes to whether you actually trust him to play real minutes in the playoffs. Landale being gone means the Hawks need Gueye to step up and be a net neutral in the frontcourt.
While the third-year big man provides positive value defensively as a rim protector, he needs to be much better at finishing at the rim. On top of providing resistance on the defensive glass, so Atlanta doesn’t get killed in that category by Robinson, Towns, and Josh Hart.
Series Prediction
My prediction for this series is New York wins in five games. While me predicting the Knicks winning in five games makes it seem they will handle the Hawks pretty handily, that’s not the case.
Atlanta playing at the level of a top ten team in the league for two months doesn’t just happen by accident. They can give New York some problems with their transition offense, multitude of lengthy defenders to throw at Brunson, having multiple shot creators, and Quinn Snyder, who’s a top ten coach in the league.
Yet, I see the Knicks dominating Atlanta in the interior by destroying them on the glass, especially on offensive rebounds with Robinson and Towns. The all-world defender that is Anunoby will contain Jalen Johnson in the rising star’s first playoff series as the first option.
Bridges will force Nickeil Alexander-Walker to put the ball on the floor more than he is comfortable with. Also, this will be Nickeil’s first time in the playoffs as a primary scoring option for his team.
Not to mention the ancillary scoring of Anunoby and Bridges, who deliver 14+ points on plus relative true shooting and shoot above 37% on catch and shoot threes. Plus, the Hawks lacking the ability to consistently punish Brunson and Towns defensively, all signs point to this series being in the Knicks favor.
Atlanta will steal a game behind a McCollum explosion or by overwhelmingly winning the transition battle. But the Knicks have better depth outside of their top six rotation players with Miles McBride, Jose Alvarado, and Landry Shamet. In conjunction with New York’s size advantages at center will be too much for the Hawks to overcome.
