I’m an international student from Germany, and I’ve been watching the political situation back home very closely and analyzing it with a fine-tooth comb. Here’s my analysis:
Germany’s political landscape has been in agitation only a few hours after President Trump won the election in the U.S. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government collapsed in November of last year following a budget dispute.
This collapse led to a confidence vote in December, which Scholz lost by a significant margin: 394 votes against him, 207 in favor, and 116 abstentions. As a result, Germany will hold snap elections on Feb. 23, marking the first time in two decades the country will undergo an early national election. In other words, Germany’s political system, which
has been known for its constant stability, is in an unsettled situation.
The collapse of Scholz’s so-called “traffic light” government, a coalition formed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democrats (FDP), and the Green Party, had been brewing for months due to disagreements over economic and immigration policies. Despite best efforts, the political instability and challenges of governing in an uneasy coalition eventually led to this moment of crisis where Germany is quietly going into a political meltdown.
Editor’s Note: The linked polls are from a German source called Tagesschau.
The election will feature seven major political parties, with four of them having announced their candidates for chancellor. Among them are the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), who together form a powerful opposition to the SPD. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU candidate, is widely expected to be the next chancellor.
Merz leads a party that has shifted rightward under his leadership, particularly in terms of immigration policies.
Olaf Scholz will continue as the SPD’s candidate for chancellor, though his unpopularity has dimmed his prospects. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), with Alice Weidel as their chancellor candidate, is expected to play a significant role in the election, gaining momentum with strong populist rhetoric on migration and German identity. In fact, last September, they won the state election in Thuringia.
That has been the first time a party as far-right as the AfD won an election since the times of national socialism. “These, in my opinion, are truly sad results and make me concerned about the upcoming elections in two weeks”, outlines Paul Schlatterer, 19, a German student from Friedrichshafen.
The Green Party, led by Robert Habeck, is unlikely to secure enough votes to become the largest party but may still be crucial in forming the next government. Other key parties include the Free Democrats, Die Linke (a far-left party), and BSW (a splinter party of Die Linke), which will struggle to overcome the 5%-clause.
Current polling shows the CDU/CSU leading with 31% support, followed by the far-right AfD at 21%, the SPD at 15%, and the Greens at 14%. Given the proportional representation system, no party is likely to win an outright majority, so coalition-building will be crucial.
The economy will be a central issue, with Germany facing a slowdown. The German Central Bank has revised its growth forecast down, signaling stagnation for the winter of 2024-2025. This has triggered debates on how best to address the country’s economic challenges, particularly in the automotive sector, which is experiencing major layoffs and plant closures.
Immigration is another hotly debated issue, with the AfD pushing for stricter policies. The SPD, under Scholz, reintroduced border checks with neighboring countries in an attempt to counter the growing influence of the AfD, but the party’s approach to migration has been a point of contention within its coalition.
While the CDU/CSU is expected to win, the real question lies in coalition negotiations. Merz’s party is unlikely to secure a majority on its own and thus will have to seek a coalition partner. This could either be the SPD, with whom they have worked in the past, or the Green Party, though this could lead to clashes on policy.
The AfD’s rise presents a new challenge, as the CDU/CSU may be unwilling to partner with such a far-right party. Yet, a major shift in Germany’s political dynamics could occur if the AfD wins a substantial number of seats, signaling the increasing influence of far-right politics in the country.
Scholz and the SPD are expected to face a significant setback in the election, potentially marking the end of Scholz’s political career. The results will shape Germany’s future domestic policies and its role within the European Union.
Schlatterer has one last appeal to the young German generation: “I’m worried about the students my age: Many are being influenced by social media such as TikTok or other platforms and therefore are presented with false political information. It is the most important thing to inform yourself properly by using trustworthy sources and to go and vote for a party that supports the democratic system on Election day.”
As the election approaches, the question remains: Who will ultimately form a stable government, and what direction will Germany take in the face of a rising right-wing populist movement and economic challenges?
